What AI is doing to entry-level jobs — the early evidence

The "AI will take all the jobs" debate is mostly noise. The actual 2025 evidence is more specific — and more interesting.

What the data shows

• The ILO estimates GenAI could affect roughly one-fifth of tasks globally; 1 in 4 workers are in an occupation with some exposure, but most jobs are transformed, not eliminated.
• A Harvard analysis of 62M LinkedIn profiles found AI adoption correlates with steep drops in junior hires at adopting firms, while senior hiring stays flat — driven by slower hiring, not layoffs.
• Yet the Yale Budget Lab found no clear link between AI exposure and unemployment through mid-2025.

The early effect of AI on jobs looks less like a wave of firings and more like a closing door for entry-level roles — companies skipping the junior hire for tasks AI now covers.

That creates a pipeline problem: if AI does the work juniors used to learn on, where do tomorrow's seniors come from? It's a question every AI-adopting org should be asking now.

Sources

• ILO — Generative AI and Jobs: 2025 Update
• Anthropic — Labor market impacts of AI
• Yale Budget Lab — Evaluating the Impact of AI on the Labor Market